Temperature Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan Using Statistical Downscaling

We assessed maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures over Pakistan’s Indus basin during the 21st century using statistical downscaling. A particular focus was given to spatiotemporal heterogeneity, reference General Circulation Model (GCM) uncertainties, skills of regression models an observational profile that could significantly be improved by recent high-altitude observatories. First, we characterized into homogeneous climate regions K-means clustering. Predictors from ERA-Interim reanalysis were then used model observed skillfully quantify GCM uncertainties. Thermodynamical (dynamical) variables mainly governed The predictors under RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios as “new” in project ensemble temperature changes. Our analysis projected non-uniform warming but not validate elevation-dependent (EDW) at scale. obtained more significant westerly-dominated seasons, with heating winter season through Tmin most striking feature is a low-warming monsoon (with possibility no change slight cooling) Upper Basin (UIB). Therefore, likelihood continuing anomalous UIB behavior primary melt may entirely ruled out end RCP8.5.